Home sales, prices may play key voter role in 2024 election (2024)

The presidential and North Carolina governor races may come down to voters’ perceptions of how the national and state economies are performing compared with what the data is showing.

That, in itself, is not any great revealing.

Economists and everyday people tend to rotate on what are the most important economic indicators, such as stock market/401(k) gains and losses, gas and grocery prices, and unemployment rate and hiring trends, when it comes to casting their votes in presidential, statewide and local races.

“Usually, people reward incumbents more than they deserved to be when things are going well, and they punish incumbents when things are going poorly,” said Jason Husser, an Elon political science professor and director of the Elon University Poll. “That’s been the pattern for well over 100 years in U.S. history. You can often predict an outcome better by just taking in economic factors than by just looking at a poll three or four months out.”

The latest Elon Poll, released Aug. 27, found the economy and abortion rights as the two most likely influential issues among the 800 registered voters.

For Husser, what got his attention were questions addressing housing costs.

About 56% of respondents say home sale prices are much higher than in 2022, while another 33% say they are somewhat higher. Those percentages hold steady across gender, age, education levels, race, household income and party affiliation.

What stood out to Husser in particular was the question of whether participants feel they could reasonably afford to buy or recent their current residence if they had to pay today’s housing prices.

About 71% responded that they could not, including 77% of Republicans, 77% of unaffiliated voters and 64% of Democrats.

“This is a striking increase from an Elon Poll in October 2021, when 41% said they could not afford to rent or buy a home like their current one,” Husser said.

In terms of household income, of those making less than $50,000, 76% said no, while 79% of those making between $50,000 and $100,000 said no, and 52% of those making $100,000 or more said no.

In terms of age, of those 18 to 44 about 63% said no, while those 45 and older about 77% said no.

“That really stood out to me, and it’s particularly true in areas that have had high population growth,” Husser said.

“It’s seen foremost in Charlotte and the Triangle, but there’s certainly examples in the Triad. I would have had to say ‘no’ as well if I was trying to buy my current home today.”

Husser said with the housing market still mostly in the favor of the seller, rising home prices are a plus for them.

“But, unless you are downsizing or someone retiring and moving into a senior living community, sellers have to find and buy a new home that may take up most, if not all, of what they gained from selling their current home.”

Another housing factor spilling over into peoples’ economic perceptions is the dearth of affordable starter homes in the Triad and statewide, Husser said.

That shortage is benefiting apartment landlords and developers for young adults who can’t afford, or don’t see a path, to homeownership.

Triad housing performance

The Triad experienced a slight uptick in existing home sales during the first half of 2024, according to Triad Multiple Listing Service data released on Aug. 15 by the Winston-Salem Association of Realtors.

Closed sales were up 1.2% to 9,191, while pending sales were down 0.9% to 9,702, and new listing up 9.3% to 11,760.

For homebuyers who were able to secure a home, the median sale price was 3.8% higher year over year at $298,000. Sellers typically received 99% of their list price for their home.

The association also reported there was a 2.3-month supply of existing single-family homes for sale, up 35.3% from a year ago.

Alison Sink, president-elect of Winston-Salem Association of Realtors, said the new Forsyth County single-family home inventory is up over 13% from a year ago, but pending sales are down over 16%.

“This could indicate that the market is balancing,” Sink said.

“However, a balanced market is typically defined as having four to six months of inventory. We are still experiencing a historically low supply of homes, hovering around only two months available. Housing is still a critical need within the Carolina Core.”

Marvette Artis, 2024 president of Greensboro Regional Realtors Association, said “buyers are taking advantage of more homes on the market, as evidenced by our county’s increase in closed sales.”

Inflation impact

When comes to determining the influence of inflation on the 2024 general election, the poll found 78% of respondents said inflation has somewhat or very negatively impacted their family.

“Those in households earning less than $100,000 and those without four-year college degrees were especially likely to report those negative effects,” according to the poll analysis.

“There is also a strong Republican tilt in the data.”

About 90% of Republicans said inflation has affected them badly, including 55% who said the impact has been very negative.

By contrast, just 15% of Democrats said the effect on them has been very negative, while 50% said the impact has been somewhat negative.”

When it comes to whether their personal financial situation has gotten better, stayed the same or worsen under the Biden administration, 48% said worse, 31% said the same and 21% better.

About 80% of Republican registered voters said worse, 17% same and 3% better, while 40% of Democrat registered voters said better, 44% said the same and 17% worse.

Husser credits that gap to “partisan antipathy, which is so high right now that basic perceptions of facts have been shifted largely through their ideological lens.”

“Republicans are underestimating how they have fared economically under the Biden administration, while Democrats are overestimating their economic situation.”

Grading NC, local economies

The Elon Poll asked respondents what letter grade they would give the performance of the North Carolina economy and their local economies.

Overall, the grade breakdown for N.C. is 8% “A”, 27% “B”, 36% “C”, 21% “D” and 8% “F.”

When it comes to their local economy, the grade breakdown is similar: 9% “A”, 29% “B”, 33% “C”, 19% “D”, and 9% “F.”

About 54% of Democrats registered voters chose either an A or B grade and 18% either D or F, while just 28% of Republican registered voters chose A or B and 38% chose D or F.

“People tend to separate somewhat their sense of their local economy from the state or national economy,” Husser said.

Husser said for example it’s likely Triad residents may grade the local economy better in part because of all the business recruitment success with Toyota North America, Siemens, Boom Supersonic, Nucor and Marshall Aerospace.

“Some voters may cast their presidential choice based on ideology, while their statewide and local choices based on actual performance or controversies attached to those races,” Husser said.

Husser cited Trump winning North Carolina while Republican Gov. Pat McCrory lost his re-election bid to Roy Cooper, caused primarily because McCrory signed transgender restroom House Bill 2 into law and the subsequent economic fallout, and his backing of the controversial development of toll roads along Interstate 77 in Iredell and Mecklenburg counties.

Husser cautioned the economic grade results could have implications for not only the presidential race, but also the governor and legislative races.

Both Cooper and Republican legislative leaders continue to tout North Carolina’s high rankings in terms of economic performance and business recruitment successes.

Cooper tends to focus on the state’s K-12, university and community college systems, workforce training initiatives and infrastructure networks.

Meanwhile, Senate leader Phil Berger, R-Rockingham, and other GOP legislative leaders put their emphasis on the state’s 2.5% corporate tax rate that is being phased down until it goes away in 2033.

Reward or punish?

Studying why voters reward or punish elected officials for the performance of the economy is in the DNA of most political scientists, said John Dinan, a Wake Forest University political science professor who is a national expert on state legislatures.

“Do voters feel that the governor or state legislature is responsible for the health of the economy, or do voters hold the president and the president’s party accountable? Dinan asked.

“When political scientists prepare models that forecast the outcome of presidential elections, perhaps the leading factor that is included in nearly every forecasting model is the health of the economy, and this can be expected that this will be a key factor in voting for president in 2024.

“In general, voters tend to hold the president and his party accountable for the health of the economy ... with these judgments generally being made on the basis of the performance of the national economy and their feelings about the national economy.”

Winston-Salem State economics professor Zagros Madjd-Sadjadi said that overall, the North Carolina economy “has been very robust and strong relative to other states, but it also tends to mirror the national picture.”

“As such, it tends to expand and contract with the national business cycle. Unemployment is still very low, but inflation is still not beaten and wages over the past few years have not kept pace.”

“As such, many people still feel as though the economy has left them behind and blame the federal government for this, while understanding that the state government has little ability to alter the inflationary trajectory,” Madjd-Sajdadi said.

In terms of ballot splitting, Madjd-Sadjadi said he would not be surprised if North Carolina voters go for the status quo with a Democratic governor and a Republican legislature, “while the presidency is likely too close to call.”

Michael Walden, an economics professor at N.C. State University, said a key factor can be how voters interpret inflationary news.

“When people hear news reports that ‘inflation is down,’ they interpret that to mean prices are down,” Walden said. “Then, when they see most prices aren’t down, they are angry.

“Technically, what it means is the inflation rate is down. Price increases are still occurring — the latest year-over-year inflation rate is 2.9% — but the rate is much better than the 9.1% annual inflation rate in June 2022.”

Walden said what tends to be overlooked is that modest price increases — annual rates of 1% to 3% — “are normal.”

“What is normal is modest inflation where average worker earnings can beat price increases. Such a situation allows standards of living to rise.”